1917 Palomar Oaks Way, Suite 130 - Carlsbad, CA - 92008 760.431.3040
4th qtr 2024 Market Update

Happy New Year!

As we reflect on the past year, we can’t help but be amazed at the resilience and surprises of 2024. Despite a host of challenges—high interest rates, global tensions, and shifting employment dynamics, the economy and markets found ways to thrive. Before we dive into the numbers and trends, we want to thank you for your trust and confidence in our endeavor to serve you and to manage your investment portfolio. Your engagement and trust mean everything as we navigate these ever-evolving financial landscapes together.

Before we jump into the market recap, some fresh Social Security news affects former teachers and government workers!

The Social Security Fairness Act, signed into law by President Biden on January 5, 2025, eliminates the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO), which previously reduced Social Security benefits for certain public sector employees. This repeal allows approximately 3 million affected individuals, including teachers, firefighters, and other government workers, to receive full Social Security benefits. The law includes retroactive payments for 2024 and increases monthly benefits by an average of $360 starting in 2025. Advocates hailed this as a historic correction to inequities in the system that had penalized public servants and their families for decades​. We are curious to track how this affects our clients. Please let us know what you hear about your personal situation.

2024 Highlights

Though economic data pointed to recovery and growth, many consumers felt the pinch of persistent price pressures:

  • Economic Growth: Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.1% in the third quarter and 2.9% year-over-year, showcasing unexpected economic resilience.
  • Stock Market Gains: Each major stock index closed the year with significant growth: the Nasdaq rose by an impressive 28.6%, and the S&P 500 gained 23.3%. It was an easy year to be an investor - which, as you know, is not always the case.
  • Inflation Progress: While still elevated, inflation moderated, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declining to 2.4% in September before ticking up again to 2.7% in November.

Consumer Challenges

The year defied expectations in many ways:

  • High Living Costs: Food prices rose by 2.4% over the year, while shelter costs climbed 4.7%.
  • Employment Dynamics: Unemployment increased slightly to 4.2%, with 883,000 more people unemployed than in November 2023.

Market Performance

  • Equities: Stock markets soared, driven by corporate earnings growth and innovations in technology, particularly artificial intelligence. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all hit record highs. That was the fun part.
  • Bonds: While bond markets faced volatility, they ended the year with increased investment, as investors sought to lock in high yields. For many retirees and those who want a more balanced portfolio, bonds are often the go-to.
  • Housing: Despite elevated mortgage rates (7.03% for a 30-year fixed mortgage as of December), both new and existing home sales rose, driven by steady demand. The real estate market has, however, slowed in southern California with sales having been sluggish of late. Part of that, we believe, is many sellers are still living in the heady days of bidding wars resulting in homes selling for more than the asking price. With high mortgage interest rates, those days could well be over for some time to come.

The Markets in Review

Financial Facts and Stats

Looking Ahead to 2025

As we enter a new year, uncertainties remain. Key questions loom around geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and fiscal policies under the new administration. However, corporate earnings growth and recent progress in moderating inflation provides reasons for optimism. that the federal funds rate was reduced by a total of one percent in 2024 was clearly not a bad thing. Will conflicts in the Middle East continue into 2025, and if so, what impact will they have on crude oil production? These are just a few of the many issues we will be closely monitoring as we navigate the new year.

Closing Thoughts

We’re excited to continue partnering with you in 2025, helping you navigate your financial journey with clarity and confidence. As always, we’re here to answer your questions and help you make the most of the opportunities ahead. Thank you for allowing us to be part of your story. Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling year ahead!

Your Financial Focus Team




Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities and other bonds fluctuates with market conditions. Bonds are subject to inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. A bond sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.